Can you live off it? Withdrawals replayed on real history
Withdrawals raised every year with prices, replayed on four portfolios from every month of their record, measured again on 2026-09-01. A count of starts, never a probability.
The record starts in January 1990. It does not include 1966–1982, the years the 4% rule was built on.
Can you retire with $1 million? What it paid a year, replayed from every start since 1990$40,000 a year: the most $1 million in the S&P 500 paid, raised with prices every year, without running out over 30 years from any start since 1990.Can you retire with $2 million? What it paid a year, replayed from every start since 1990$80,000 a year: the most $2 million in the S&P 500 paid, raised with prices every year, without running out over 30 years from any start since 1990.Can you retire with $500,000? What it paid a year, replayed from every start since 1990$20,000 a year: the most $500,000 in the S&P 500 paid, raised with prices every year, without running out over 30 years from any start since 1990.Safe withdrawal rate for a 30-year retirement, measured on four portfolios since 19904.0% a year: the most the S&P 500 paid, raised with prices, without running out over 30 years from any start since 1990.Safe withdrawal rate for a 25-year retirement, measured on four portfolios since 19904.0% a year: the most the S&P 500 paid, raised with prices, without running out over 25 years from any start since 1990.Safe withdrawal rate for a 20-year retirement, measured on four portfolios since 19904.4% a year: the most the S&P 500 paid, raised with prices, without running out over 20 years from any start since 1990.The 4% rule on real portfolios: every start since 19904% a year from the S&P 500 lasted 30 years in 82 of 82 complete starts since 1990.
Check it with your own portfolio