Does the 4% rule work?

On the S&P 500 since 1990, 4% a year raised with prices lasted in 82 of 82 complete starts; no later start has run out over 30 years. Taking $40,000 a year, retiring in April 2000 came closest: 26½ years on, $19,524 is left, in today’s money. The record does not include 1966–1982, the years the rule was built on.

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Real monthly returns since January 1990 · US inflation (FRED) · before taxes and fees · method →

The 4% rule on real portfolios: every start since 1990

4% a year from the S&P 500 lasted 30 years in 82 of 82 complete starts since 1990.

Taking $40,000 a year, retiring in April 2000 came closest: 26½ years on, $19,524 is left, in today’s money.

The record starts in January 1990. It does not include 1966–1982, the years the 4% rule was built on.

Check it with your own portfolio

Monthly returns through September 2026

The highest yearly rate, by portfolio

Portfolio	20 years	25 years	30 years
S&P 500 (VOO)	4.4%202 starts	4.0%142 starts	4.0%82 starts
Total US market (VTI)	4.6%175 starts	4.2%115 starts	4.2%55 starts
60% S&P 500 / 40% US bonds	5.5%202 starts	4.8%142 starts	4.7%82 starts
Three-fund: US / international / bonds, 60/30/10	5.0%127 starts	4.4%67 starts	4.3%only 7 starts

Without running out from any start in the record, withdrawals raised every year with US prices. Next to each figure, the number of starts it was measured on: a span must fit inside the record to count.

S&P 500 (VOO): VOO, carried back to 1990 by VFINX, the Vanguard S&P 500 fund it replicates, since January 1990.
Total US market (VTI): VTI, carried back to 1992 by VTSMX, the Vanguard total-market fund, since April 1992.
60% S&P 500 / 40% US bonds: VOO and VBMFX, the Vanguard total bond index fund, since January 1990.
Three-fund: US / international / bonds, 60/30/10: VTI, VXUS (carried back to 1996 by VGTSX) and VBMFX, since April 1996.

How much you take changes it

Over 30 years. A complete start is one whose whole span is in the record; a later start is followed as far as the record goes, and counted only if the money already ran out.

You take a year	S&P 500 (VOO)	60% S&P 500 / 40% US bonds
3.0%	lasted in 82 of 82 complete starts; no later start has run out	lasted in 82 of 82 complete starts; no later start has run out
4.0%	lasted in 82 of 82 complete starts; no later start has run out	lasted in 82 of 82 complete starts; no later start has run out
5.0%	lasted in 82 of 82 complete starts; 32 later starts already ran out, the earliest after 16 years (April 2000)	lasted in 82 of 82 complete starts; 21 later starts already ran out, the earliest after 24 years (April 2000)
6.0%	lasted in 82 of 82 complete starts; 55 later starts already ran out, the earliest after 12 years (September 2000)	lasted in 82 of 82 complete starts; 57 later starts already ran out, the earliest after 17 years (April 2000)

4% a year, on every portfolio

Portfolio	20 years	25 years	30 years
S&P 500 (VOO)	lasted in 202 of 202 complete starts; no later start has run out	lasted in 142 of 142 complete starts; no later start has run out	lasted in 82 of 82 complete starts; no later start has run out
Total US market (VTI)	lasted in 175 of 175 complete starts; no later start has run out	lasted in 115 of 115 complete starts; no later start has run out	lasted in 55 of 55 complete starts; no later start has run out
60% S&P 500 / 40% US bonds	lasted in 202 of 202 complete starts; no later start has run out	lasted in 142 of 142 complete starts; no later start has run out	lasted in 82 of 82 complete starts; no later start has run out
Three-fund: US / international / bonds, 60/30/10	lasted in 127 of 127 complete starts; no later start has run out	lasted in 67 of 67 complete starts; no later start has run out	lasted in 7 of 7 complete starts; no later start has run out

Questions people ask

Does the 4% rule work?: On the S&P 500 since 1990, 4% a year raised with prices lasted in 82 of 82 complete starts; no later start has run out over 30 years. Taking $40,000 a year, retiring in April 2000 came closest: 26½ years on, $19,524 is left, in today’s money. The record does not include 1966–1982, the years the rule was built on.
What was the worst year to retire?: Since 1990, on the S&P 500 at 4% a year: April 2000. Taking $40,000 a year, retiring in April 2000 came closest: 26½ years on, $19,524 is left, in today’s money.

What this does not say

Every figure is the past, replayed. It is not a forecast of returns or of how long any money will last.
The record starts in January 1990: it does not include 1966–1982, the years the 4% rule was built on.
Before taxes and fund fees, with the portfolio rebalanced every month.
This page does not say how much anybody should take, and it is not advice.

Check it with your own portfolio

Your own funds, amount, yearly withdrawal and years: the same replay, and nothing saved on our side.

Check it with your own portfolio

Can you retire with $1 million? What it paid a year, replayed from every start since 1990 Can you retire with $2 million? What it paid a year, replayed from every start since 1990 Can you retire with $500,000? What it paid a year, replayed from every start since 1990 Safe withdrawal rate for a 30-year retirement, measured on four portfolios since 1990 Safe withdrawal rate for a 25-year retirement, measured on four portfolios since 1990 Safe withdrawal rate for a 20-year retirement, measured on four portfolios since 1990 All of them →Before you add a fund: what it changes →

Measured on monthly returns from January 1990 to September 2026, in USD, from Yahoo Finance prices, with the US consumer price index from FRED. Descriptive: this page replays what happened. It does not forecast, it does not say what to do, and it is not advice. How every figure is measured. Terms and privacy: /terms. If a figure looks wrong: [email protected].

The 4% rule on real portfolios: every start since 1990

The highest yearly rate, by portfolio

How much you take changes it

4% a year, on every portfolio

Questions people ask

What this does not say

Check it with your own portfolio

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