What is the safe withdrawal rate for a 30-year retirement?

Measured on real monthly returns and real US inflation, the highest yearly withdrawal that ran out from no start since 1990: S&P 500 (VOO) 4.0%; Total US market (VTI) 4.1%; 60% S&P 500 / 40% US bonds 4.6%; Three-fund: US / international / bonds, 60/30/10 4.3%. The record does not include 1966–1982. It is the past, not a forecast.

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Safe withdrawal rate for a 30-year retirement

4.0% a year: the most the S&P 500 paid, raised with prices, without running out over 30 years from any start since 1990.

Taking $40,000 a year, retiring in April 2000 came closest: 26½ years on, $12,262 is left, in the buying power the money started with.

Monthly returns since January 1990, after inflation, before taxes and fees.

Check it with your own portfolio

The record starts in January 1990. It does not include 1966–1982, the years the 4% rule was built on.

Real monthly returns since January 1990 · US inflation (FRED) · before taxes and fees · method →

Monthly returns through November 2026

The highest yearly rate, by portfolio

Portfolio	20 years	25 years	30 years
S&P 500 (VOO)	4.4%204 starts	4.0%144 starts	4.0%84 starts
Total US market (VTI)	4.6%177 starts	4.2%117 starts	4.1%57 starts
60% S&P 500 / 40% US bonds	5.4%204 starts	4.8%144 starts	4.6%84 starts
Three-fund: US / international / bonds, 60/30/10	4.9%129 starts	4.4%69 starts	4.3%only 9 starts

Without running out from any start in the record, withdrawals raised every year with US prices. The figure is the highest rate that ran out from no start in the record, whether or not that start's whole span is over yet; the number beside it counts the complete spans, the ones that fit inside the record.

S&P 500 (VOO): VOO, carried back to 1990 by VFINX, the Vanguard S&P 500 fund it replicates, since January 1990.
Total US market (VTI): VTI, carried back to 1992 by VTSMX, the Vanguard total-market fund, since April 1992.
60% S&P 500 / 40% US bonds: VOO and VBMFX, the Vanguard total bond index fund, since January 1990.
Three-fund: US / international / bonds, 60/30/10: VTI, VXUS (carried back to 1996 by VGTSX) and VBMFX, since April 1996.

How much you take changes it

Over 30 years. A complete start is one whose whole span is in the record; a later start is followed as far as the record goes, and counted only if the money already ran out.

You take a year	S&P 500 (VOO)	60% S&P 500 / 40% US bonds
3.0%	lasted in 84 of 84 complete starts; no later start has run out	lasted in 84 of 84 complete starts; no later start has run out
4.0%	lasted in 84 of 84 complete starts; no later start has run out	lasted in 84 of 84 complete starts; no later start has run out
5.0%	lasted in 84 of 84 complete starts; 32 later starts already ran out, the earliest after 16 years (April 2000)	lasted in 84 of 84 complete starts; 21 later starts already ran out, the earliest after 24 years (April 2000)
6.0%	lasted in 84 of 84 complete starts; 55 later starts already ran out, the earliest after 12 years (September 2000)	lasted in 84 of 84 complete starts; 58 later starts already ran out, the earliest after 17 years (April 2000)

Questions people ask

What is the safe withdrawal rate for a 30-year retirement?: Measured on real monthly returns and real US inflation, the highest yearly withdrawal that ran out from no start since 1990: S&P 500 (VOO) 4.0%; Total US market (VTI) 4.1%; 60% S&P 500 / 40% US bonds 4.6%; Three-fund: US / international / bonds, 60/30/10 4.3%. The record does not include 1966–1982. It is the past, not a forecast.
What was the worst year to retire?: Since 1990, on the S&P 500 at 4% a year: April 2000. Taking $40,000 a year, retiring in April 2000 came closest: 26½ years on, $12,262 is left, in the buying power the money started with.

What this does not say

Every figure is the past, replayed. It is not a forecast of returns or of how long any money will last.
The record starts in January 1990: it does not include 1966–1982, the years the 4% rule was built on.
Before taxes and fund fees, with the portfolio rebalanced every month.
This page does not say how much anybody should take, and it is not advice.

Check it with your own portfolio

Your own funds, amount, yearly withdrawal and years: the same replay, and nothing saved on our side.

Check it with your own portfolio

Can you retire with $1 million? What it paid a year, replayed from every start since 1990 Can you retire with $2 million? What it paid a year, replayed from every start since 1990 Can you retire with $500,000? What it paid a year, replayed from every start since 1990 Safe withdrawal rate for a 25-year retirement, measured on four portfolios since 1990 Safe withdrawal rate for a 20-year retirement, measured on four portfolios since 1990 The 4% rule on real portfolios: every start since 1990 All of them →Before you add a fund: what it changes →

Measured on monthly returns from January 1990 to November 2026, in USD, from Yahoo Finance prices, with the US consumer price index from FRED. Descriptive: this page replays what happened. It does not forecast, it does not say what to do, and it is not advice. How every figure is measured. Terms and privacy: /terms. If a figure looks wrong: [email protected].

Safe withdrawal rate for a 30-year retirement

The highest yearly rate, by portfolio

How much you take changes it

Questions people ask

What this does not say

Check it with your own portfolio

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