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Real monthly returns since January 1990 · US inflation (FRED) · before taxes and fees · method →

Safe withdrawal rate for a 30-year retirement, measured on four portfolios since 1990

4.0% a year: the most the S&P 500 paid, raised with prices, without running out over 30 years from any start since 1990.

Taking $40,000 a year, retiring in April 2000 came closest: 26½ years on, $19,524 is left, in today’s money.

The record starts in January 1990. It does not include 1966–1982, the years the 4% rule was built on.

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Monthly returns through September 2026

The highest yearly rate, by portfolio

Portfolio20 years25 years30 years
S&P 500 (VOO)4.4%202 starts4.0%142 starts4.0%82 starts
Total US market (VTI)4.6%175 starts4.2%115 starts4.2%55 starts
60% S&P 500 / 40% US bonds5.5%202 starts4.8%142 starts4.7%82 starts
Three-fund: US / international / bonds, 60/30/105.0%127 starts4.4%67 starts4.3%only 7 starts

Without running out from any start in the record, withdrawals raised every year with US prices. Next to each figure, the number of starts it was measured on: a span must fit inside the record to count.

How much you take changes it

Over 30 years. A complete start is one whose whole span is in the record; a later start is followed as far as the record goes, and counted only if the money already ran out.

You take a yearS&P 500 (VOO)60% S&P 500 / 40% US bonds
3.0%lasted in 82 of 82 complete starts; no later start has run outlasted in 82 of 82 complete starts; no later start has run out
4.0%lasted in 82 of 82 complete starts; no later start has run outlasted in 82 of 82 complete starts; no later start has run out
5.0%lasted in 82 of 82 complete starts; 32 later starts already ran out, the earliest after 16 years (April 2000)lasted in 82 of 82 complete starts; 21 later starts already ran out, the earliest after 24 years (April 2000)
6.0%lasted in 82 of 82 complete starts; 55 later starts already ran out, the earliest after 12 years (September 2000)lasted in 82 of 82 complete starts; 57 later starts already ran out, the earliest after 17 years (April 2000)

Questions people ask

What is the safe withdrawal rate for a 30-year retirement?
Measured on real monthly returns and real US inflation, the highest yearly withdrawal that ran out from no start since 1990: S&P 500 (VOO) 4.0%; Total US market (VTI) 4.2%; 60% S&P 500 / 40% US bonds 4.7%; Three-fund: US / international / bonds, 60/30/10 4.3%. The record does not include 1966–1982. It is the past, not a forecast.
What was the worst year to retire?
Since 1990, on the S&P 500 at 4% a year: April 2000. Taking $40,000 a year, retiring in April 2000 came closest: 26½ years on, $19,524 is left, in today’s money.

What this does not say

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Your own funds, amount, yearly withdrawal and years: the same replay, and nothing saved on our side.

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More

Can you retire with $1 million? What it paid a year, replayed from every start since 1990Can you retire with $2 million? What it paid a year, replayed from every start since 1990Can you retire with $500,000? What it paid a year, replayed from every start since 1990Safe withdrawal rate for a 25-year retirement, measured on four portfolios since 1990Safe withdrawal rate for a 20-year retirement, measured on four portfolios since 1990The 4% rule on real portfolios: every start since 1990All of them →Before you add a fund: what it changes →

Measured on monthly returns from January 1990 to September 2026, in USD, from Yahoo Finance prices, with the US consumer price index from FRED. Descriptive: this page replays what happened. It does not forecast, it does not say what to do, and it is not advice. How every figure is measured. Terms and privacy: /terms. If a figure looks wrong: [email protected].