What is the Golden Butterfly portfolio really made of?

5 holdings. Together they swing like 2.8 separate bets. VBR is 20% of the money and 41% of the risk.

Daily prices, 18 Nov 2004 to 6 Nov 2026. What happened, not a forecast.

Five equal slices: US total market, US small-cap value, long and short Treasuries, and gold.

Measured on 2026-11-06

What it is made of

Company	Share of everything	Through
NVDA	1.3%	VTI 1.3%
AAPL	1.2%	VTI 1.2%
GOOGL	1.0%	VTI 1.0%
MSFT	0.8%	VTI 0.8%
AMZN	0.6%	VTI 0.6%
AVGO	0.5%	VTI 0.5%

This table names the companies behind 38% of the money. The rest is held too, in positions this measurement could not name.

Where the risk sits

Holding	Money	Risk	Ratio
VBR	20%	41%	2.04
VTI	20%	34%	1.69
GLD	20%	21%	1.04
TLT	20%	4%	0.21
SHY	20%	0%	0.02

Since last week

Separate bets: 2.8 (a week earlier 2.8). Largest company: NVDA 1.3% (a week earlier NVDA 1.3%). Volatility over the whole window: 8.9% (a week earlier 8.9%).

The reading, in full

PORTFOLIO: Golden Butterfly
2004-11-18 to 2026-11-06 · 5,527 trading days · USD

5 holdings.
Together they swing like 2.8 separate bets.

VBR: 20% of the money, 41% of the risk.
Volatility 9% · worst fall on record 21%.
Risk 10% → 10% over the last year, mostly because the holdings moved together differently.

Descriptive. No forecast, no advice. Every figure above is measured over the window named at the top.
folionomiq.com

What this does not say

Every figure is measured on past daily prices over the window below. It is not a forecast of returns or losses.
VTI before 2001-06-15 is measured on the daily moves of VTSMX, an older fund on the same index (CRSP US Total Market), from 1992-04-27. Those years describe the older fund, not VTI's own record. Older crises may still lie outside the window.
These are model allocations as they are commonly described, not recommendations; the weights measured are the ones printed above.

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Other portfolios

Measured 2004-11-18 to 2026-11-06 over 5,526 trading days, in USD, from Yahoo Finance prices. Descriptive: this page reports what these holdings have done and how their risk is built. It does not forecast returns or losses and it is not advice. How every figure is measured. Terms and privacy: /terms. If a figure looks wrong: [email protected].